Predictions and analysis: VU basketball next season (Part 4)
Apr 18, 2015 21:56:41 GMT
Post by Admin on Apr 18, 2015 21:56:41 GMT
Predictions and analysis: VU basketball for next season (Part 4 of 4)
This is the hardest part. The schedule has not been released making it impossible to give an accurate guess at a final record. But that won’t stop us. First item on the agenda is who won’t be back. The major losses are James Siakam to graduation and Shelton Mitchell to transfer (UPDATE: to Clemson) will be leaving. Shelby Moats who played virtually no minutes is also graduating. Josh Henderson has been granted a rare sixth year of eligibility due to massive injuries over the course of his career and will either show regained lateral ability in the rebuilt knee or possibly be buried on the bench behind younger and more skilled players.
The other wild card besides Hendo will be incoming transfer Nolan Cressler. His most recent season of basketball was at Cornell where he averaged nearly 17 a game. He is listed at 6-4 and 205, thus will add size to the guard depth. His shooting stats from three and the free throw line were solid. If he can play good defense, he will be an immediate factor. Another incoming player who is a bit of a mystery is guard Camron Justice. How can a guy who was Mister Basketball in Kentucky be a mystery? This statement is based on the size of his high school and thus the size of the competition he often faced. The enrollment at his high school is around 600. The graduating class at some high schools these days is 600. Yet, we all learned from the Hoosiers film, never diss the small school kids. His list of offers from other schools was very impressive. Physical specimen Djery Baptiste at 6-11 and 250 is an imposing looking prospect who will provide depth in the paint. With the return of Jones, Kornet, Roberson – the inside game and rebounding should become a strength for this team.
Unlike, Justice and Baptiste, there is little mystery about how soon forwards Joseph Toye and Samir Sehic can contribute. As soon as their flights land at BNA they will be ready. Two different but complimenting styles from these two will be a treat for VU basketball fans for years. At 6-9 and 250, nobody will be “starting anything” with Sehic. The proto-typical European forward, not only can he finish at the rim, using his size and build to create space – the guy can flat bury jump shot after jump shot. Since there will already be a ton of three point gunners on the roster, a guy who can bury open 15-foot jumpers at “the elbow” (ala Marc Gasol) should improve the team’s fortunes from 2-point range. This will be a critical attribute as teams double down on Jones and pay much attention to the three point line. A mid-range scoring game will be a must to go from the N.I.T. level to the NCAA level and advance with a deep run once there. And then there is the high flying athlete Toye. This is the type athlete we have missed on too many time but now have. While he might not put up huge numbers right off the bat (due to so many guys getting minutes) – don’t stress over this. He will move up in the pecking order as the years go by and become a prime time SEC wing player deluxe. As Plaster might say: book it.
This brings us to the backcourt. Besides Justice and Cressler, there are the pair of SEC All-Freshman guards LaChance and Baldwin. LaChance was solid from the very first exhibiton game. Baldwin took the spotlight away from Mitchell as the season progressed to the point that NBA scouts were starting to pay attention to his improvement. Matthew Fisher-Davis is the really wild “wild card” in all this as the JackRabbits found out in the N.I.T. and with him getting around 20 minutes per game next years, this should help keep him fresh and uninjured to where he can blister the opposition with long range shots even late in the season as effectively as early.
But what does all this quality depth mean in terms of actual win and losses? Can this team challenge UK and several others for an SEC title either in the regular season or at the SEC tourney. Barring injury issues and emotional meltdowns from the coach, the answer should be a resounding YES! Depending on the schedule, this team could flirt with the 30 win mark. By comparison, the 1993 SEC champs from VU won 28 including several in the big dance. The beloved Roy Skinner once went 23-5 in an era where less game were played. That’s 82% wins. Similar to what Fogler accomplished in 1993. If the bar is set at winning 82% or higher for a historical best ever result, this would require a regular season finish of around 24-5 which would also mean possibly no worse than 13-3 in the SEC. (Skinner did actually have a 24-4/15-1 season in the mid-1960’s but that was such a different era, anything now can’t be honestly compared to that day and time.) Fogler’s high-water mark of 14-2 is the one to keep an eye on. If Vanderbilt basketball intends to make a move to the high rent district of college hoops, this is the time for an incredible run with no mid-season slumps or excuses and no shocking early season losses to mid-majors. This could in turn result in a very favorable NCAA tourney seed and way to make a historic run to the final eight, an accomplishment not reached in the modern era at VU. The school also will need to find a way to draw bigger and more enthusiastic crowds more consistently as the NHL hockey team at 5th&Broad has shown the ability to draw 17,000+ fans even to weeknight regular season games against non-rivalry opponents. While winning more games will help put the fun back in going to Memorial Gym, Vanderbilt has all but waved the white flag and given up trying to compete with the Predators non-stop/year-round marketing push. Some people think more catchy t.v. commercials and billboards touting Vandy basketball is the answer. Unfortunately they couldn’t be more wrong. An arena with picnic table style wooden bench seating in 80% of the room, bathrooms that are stuck in the 1950’s, a sound system that is stuck in the 1970’s, no air conditioning, elevators that can get you to some parts of the gym but not others, a parking situation that has never improved – it all adds up to people who moved here from other parts of the country or those who didn’t grow up loving Memorial Gym seeing it as a primitive relic and not the quirky magical place die-hard VU fans love. It’s time to make the gym more user friendly instead of the “haunted old house” feel that might actually scare small children.
Prediction for next season: 29 total wins and final eight of the NCAA
This is the hardest part. The schedule has not been released making it impossible to give an accurate guess at a final record. But that won’t stop us. First item on the agenda is who won’t be back. The major losses are James Siakam to graduation and Shelton Mitchell to transfer (UPDATE: to Clemson) will be leaving. Shelby Moats who played virtually no minutes is also graduating. Josh Henderson has been granted a rare sixth year of eligibility due to massive injuries over the course of his career and will either show regained lateral ability in the rebuilt knee or possibly be buried on the bench behind younger and more skilled players.
The other wild card besides Hendo will be incoming transfer Nolan Cressler. His most recent season of basketball was at Cornell where he averaged nearly 17 a game. He is listed at 6-4 and 205, thus will add size to the guard depth. His shooting stats from three and the free throw line were solid. If he can play good defense, he will be an immediate factor. Another incoming player who is a bit of a mystery is guard Camron Justice. How can a guy who was Mister Basketball in Kentucky be a mystery? This statement is based on the size of his high school and thus the size of the competition he often faced. The enrollment at his high school is around 600. The graduating class at some high schools these days is 600. Yet, we all learned from the Hoosiers film, never diss the small school kids. His list of offers from other schools was very impressive. Physical specimen Djery Baptiste at 6-11 and 250 is an imposing looking prospect who will provide depth in the paint. With the return of Jones, Kornet, Roberson – the inside game and rebounding should become a strength for this team.
Unlike, Justice and Baptiste, there is little mystery about how soon forwards Joseph Toye and Samir Sehic can contribute. As soon as their flights land at BNA they will be ready. Two different but complimenting styles from these two will be a treat for VU basketball fans for years. At 6-9 and 250, nobody will be “starting anything” with Sehic. The proto-typical European forward, not only can he finish at the rim, using his size and build to create space – the guy can flat bury jump shot after jump shot. Since there will already be a ton of three point gunners on the roster, a guy who can bury open 15-foot jumpers at “the elbow” (ala Marc Gasol) should improve the team’s fortunes from 2-point range. This will be a critical attribute as teams double down on Jones and pay much attention to the three point line. A mid-range scoring game will be a must to go from the N.I.T. level to the NCAA level and advance with a deep run once there. And then there is the high flying athlete Toye. This is the type athlete we have missed on too many time but now have. While he might not put up huge numbers right off the bat (due to so many guys getting minutes) – don’t stress over this. He will move up in the pecking order as the years go by and become a prime time SEC wing player deluxe. As Plaster might say: book it.
This brings us to the backcourt. Besides Justice and Cressler, there are the pair of SEC All-Freshman guards LaChance and Baldwin. LaChance was solid from the very first exhibiton game. Baldwin took the spotlight away from Mitchell as the season progressed to the point that NBA scouts were starting to pay attention to his improvement. Matthew Fisher-Davis is the really wild “wild card” in all this as the JackRabbits found out in the N.I.T. and with him getting around 20 minutes per game next years, this should help keep him fresh and uninjured to where he can blister the opposition with long range shots even late in the season as effectively as early.
But what does all this quality depth mean in terms of actual win and losses? Can this team challenge UK and several others for an SEC title either in the regular season or at the SEC tourney. Barring injury issues and emotional meltdowns from the coach, the answer should be a resounding YES! Depending on the schedule, this team could flirt with the 30 win mark. By comparison, the 1993 SEC champs from VU won 28 including several in the big dance. The beloved Roy Skinner once went 23-5 in an era where less game were played. That’s 82% wins. Similar to what Fogler accomplished in 1993. If the bar is set at winning 82% or higher for a historical best ever result, this would require a regular season finish of around 24-5 which would also mean possibly no worse than 13-3 in the SEC. (Skinner did actually have a 24-4/15-1 season in the mid-1960’s but that was such a different era, anything now can’t be honestly compared to that day and time.) Fogler’s high-water mark of 14-2 is the one to keep an eye on. If Vanderbilt basketball intends to make a move to the high rent district of college hoops, this is the time for an incredible run with no mid-season slumps or excuses and no shocking early season losses to mid-majors. This could in turn result in a very favorable NCAA tourney seed and way to make a historic run to the final eight, an accomplishment not reached in the modern era at VU. The school also will need to find a way to draw bigger and more enthusiastic crowds more consistently as the NHL hockey team at 5th&Broad has shown the ability to draw 17,000+ fans even to weeknight regular season games against non-rivalry opponents. While winning more games will help put the fun back in going to Memorial Gym, Vanderbilt has all but waved the white flag and given up trying to compete with the Predators non-stop/year-round marketing push. Some people think more catchy t.v. commercials and billboards touting Vandy basketball is the answer. Unfortunately they couldn’t be more wrong. An arena with picnic table style wooden bench seating in 80% of the room, bathrooms that are stuck in the 1950’s, a sound system that is stuck in the 1970’s, no air conditioning, elevators that can get you to some parts of the gym but not others, a parking situation that has never improved – it all adds up to people who moved here from other parts of the country or those who didn’t grow up loving Memorial Gym seeing it as a primitive relic and not the quirky magical place die-hard VU fans love. It’s time to make the gym more user friendly instead of the “haunted old house” feel that might actually scare small children.
Prediction for next season: 29 total wins and final eight of the NCAA